Numbers We Can Believe In? Counterfactual and Welfare Analysis in International Trade
Arnaud Costinot

The first lecture will discuss standard tools for quantitative and welfare analysis in international trade. It is based on the following articles:


  • Arkolakis, C., Costinot, A. and A. Rodriguez-Clare (2012), “New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?”, AER, vol. 102, 94-130
  • Costinot, A. and A. Rodriguez-Clare (2014), “Trade Theory With Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization”, Handbook of International Economics, vol. 4, 197-261.
  • Adao R, Costinot A., and Donaldson D. (2017), “Nonparametric Counterfactual Predictions in Neoclassical Models of International Trade”, AER, vol. 107, 633-689.

Presentation Slides (PDF)